Recently, there's been an overwhelming optimism about AI. Concepts like world models and AGI, which were initially projected to materialize within 5-10 years, are now being touted as achievable in just 2-3 years due to breakthroughs in products like Sora. Seeing this surge of boundless optimism and hearing everyone around me talk about AI, I can't help but feel uneasy.
Though I am a proponent of AI and accelerationism, and despite not coming from a research or geek background, I've been deeply engaged with AI since GPT-3.0. I've been learning, thinking, and experimenting with different AI technologies to enhance application experiences. In many ways, I firmly believe in AI's transformative potential for society, its capacity to drive progress, and its ability to stir debate. The changes it will bring to social structures, operational models, and economic processes are undeniable. But is it all happening as quickly and optimistically as some suggest?
The Pitfalls of Over-Optimism
People tend to be overly optimistic in the short term but pessimistic in the long run. I believe in AI's impact, but will it be as swift as many predict? The possibility exists, but I sense an element of over-optimism in current calculations. Today's social divides, disputes, and a myriad of dissatisfactions lead people to have a more hopeful outlook on an uncertain yet desirable future. In this rapidly changing era, everyone is looking for a breakthrough, hoping that technology will usher us into an unprecedented new world. However, this anticipation often masks underlying anxiety and doubt. Our optimism about AI sometimes feels more like a gamble on the future—we want it to happen quickly, to solve our present problems, but we often overlook a critical fact: technological progress is not always linear, nor does it always align with our expectations.
The Reality of Disillusionment
I don't need to describe what a "future already here" looks like, but I can warn about the worst-case scenario of a "disillusioned ideal." The global societal divides, disputes, and various subjective and objective issues are brewing larger crises. If, simultaneously, too many exceptionally intelligent followers, speculators, and even bystanders are counting on short-term future developments to solve and save everything, the future might not be as bright as we hope. Even if we achieve compressed models capable of simulating and controlling all possibilities, societal dissatisfaction, divides, and disputes could worsen due to technological inequality, ethical concerns, and regulatory issues. If AI's development outpaces our ethical readiness and societal adaptability, the so-called "future already here" might become a utopia for a few and a disillusionment for the many.
A Call for Realism
My personal advice: while learning about AI and seeking opportunities, maintain a high level of realism.
In the end, the future is collectively created by people. It encompasses both the potential of technology and our choices and responses to these possibilities. As we strive for a "future already here," let's not forget to prepare for the courage and wisdom to face a "disillusioned ideal."
Let us embrace the pursuit of technological advancement while grounding ourselves in the reality of human and societal complexities. Balance optimism with pragmatism, and remember that while we can dream big, we must also tread carefully.
The Intersection of Optimism and Realism
The path to 2028 is likely to be neither purely utopian nor entirely disillusioned. Instead, it will be a mix of both, shaped by our collective actions, decisions, and adaptability. The hype surrounding AI's rapid advancement should be tempered with an understanding of its broader implications. The societal impact, ethical considerations, and potential for exacerbating inequalities must be addressed alongside technological progress.
Navigating the Ethical Landscape
As AI continues to evolve, we must ensure that its development aligns with ethical standards that protect and uplift all members of society. This involves creating frameworks for responsible AI deployment, addressing potential biases, and ensuring that AI technologies do not disproportionately benefit a select few while marginalizing others. The ethical landscape of AI is complex and multifaceted, requiring continuous dialogue and collaboration between technologists, ethicists, policymakers, and the public.
Preparing for Societal Adaptation
Societal adaptation to AI's advancements is crucial. This means investing in education and training programs that equip individuals with the skills needed to thrive in an AI-driven world. It also means fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptability, where people are encouraged to evolve alongside technology. As AI transforms industries and job markets, a proactive approach to workforce development and social safety nets will be essential in mitigating potential disruptions.
Embracing Uncertainty
The journey to 2028 will undoubtedly be filled with uncertainties. Embracing this uncertainty with a mindset of resilience and adaptability will be key to navigating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. By staying grounded in reality while remaining open to new possibilities, we can collectively shape a future that harnesses the power of AI for the greater good.
Conclusion
As we look towards 2028, let us balance our enthusiasm for AI with a realistic understanding of its implications. The future will be shaped by our ability to integrate technological advancements with ethical considerations, societal readiness, and a commitment to inclusivity. By doing so, we can work towards a future that is not only innovative and transformative but also equitable and just.
The future is a canvas, and AI is one of the brushes we will use to paint it. Let us paint wisely, thoughtfully, and with an eye towards the collective well-being of humanity.
In our pursuit of a "future already here," let us also prepare for the possibility of a "disillusioned ideal." Only through a balanced approach can we navigate the complexities of technological progress and create a future that truly benefits all.